Saudi Arabia has raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.5%, reflecting strong economic momentum and Vision 2030 reforms. This upward revision comes from official sources amid robust non-oil sector performance and recovering oil output.
In Q2 2025, real GDP grew 3.9% year-on-year, driven by a 4.8% surge in non-oil activities that now contribute over 55% to total GDP. The economy minister forecasted even higher at 5.1% total growth with 3.8% non-oil expansion, supported by diversification into tourism, tech, and logistics. IMF aligned closely, lifting its 2025 projection to 4% from 3%, citing faster oil production rollback and regional strength at 3.5%.
Non-oil growth outpaced overall GDP at 4.6% in some estimates, fueled by mega-projects like Neom and giga-events boosting domestic demand. Riyad Capital predicts 4.3% total growth, with oil rebounding 5.3%, though fiscal deficits may widen to 4.3% of GDP due to spending and lower oil prices. Public debt is expected to rise to 31.6% of GDP from 25.8% in 2024.
This resilience positions Saudi Arabia among top global growers, behind only India and China in IMF revisions. With unemployment at record lows and inflation contained, the kingdom balances energy exports with sustainable diversification for long-term stability.
FAQs [Frequently Asked Questions]
1. Why did Saudi Arabia revise 2025 GDP growth to 4.5%?
Strong non-oil growth at 4.8%, oil output recovery, and Vision 2030 projects like Neom drove the upgrade from prior 3-4% estimates.
2. What is non-oil sector’s GDP contribution?
Non-oil activities grew 4.8% in H1 2025, making up over 55% of total GDP and outpacing overall 3.9% Q2 growth.
3. What are key growth drivers for 2025?
Tourism, tech investments, giga-projects, and OPEC+ oil cuts rollback fuel 4.3-5.1% growth despite fiscal deficits.